While we are entering the spring season, the Middle East is entering a bloody period. There are many factors which will affect the region. We can order these factors as follows:
• The U.S. is reducing military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan and adopting a line of conduct of camouflaged war.
• Iran is strengthening its political and military presence in Iraq and the gulf.
• The environment of conflict and political tension is provoking between Iran and Azerbaijan.
• Israel is increasing arms sales to Azerbaijan.
• Russia is accepting the Syria as it’s the last position of retreat and it is expanding its opportunities for the fight against on covered war in the Middle East.
• US, UK and Israel are planning to divide Syria as North – South with a line extending from BuKemal to Humus.
• The U.S. alliance is waiting that Turkiye will be come to point of accepting ethnic identity and Kurdish federation as a result of constitutional studies.
• The Announcing of Independent Kurdish Federation has been postponed until summer, because according to the course of developments in Turkiye and Syria.
• The PKK is negotiating with the United States to support the revolt in Syria and is keeping away it’s militias from internal conflict in Al Gamishli, in exchange for constitutional guarantees in Turkiye.
• The government of Turkiye is reporting that it will continue to struggle against the PKK terrorism and KCK (Illegal Kurdish Construction).
• The ceasefire resolution between Hamas and Israel has been secretly extended until the end of the Syria problem.
• In Egypt, the old pro-Soviet radical Islamist organizations are re-organizing against to pro-US Military Rule the hostility to the U.S.A. is increasing between Islamic groups.
• The UK is provoking Islamist organizations in the Caucasus against Russia.
• While the UK is making plans for how to disable France in Syria; France is sending secret armed forces to Syria with the assistance of it’s friends in Lebanon and wants to play a key role as is the case in Libya.
• Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Countries are beginning to spend money relatively for countries and groups which are using armed forces against Syria.
• Russia and Iran are beginning new preparations against Saudis and the Gulf sheiks in Yemen and Bahrain.
• Barzani has reached a significant power with petro dollars about management of Kurdish movement.
These important developments which has need detailed analysis for each of them, are important sign to begin a Bloody Spring with April and May in the Middle East. Obama is reducing military presence of the United States over on the world for winning in the autumn elections, but he is supporting the covered intelligence war. The only significant development to stop this chaos is increasing the oil prices.
Turkish government, Police and Turkish Armed Forces are well aware and they are making plans and the preparations for these developments. All the same, there is a major political issue outside the military plans: The danger of division of Iraq, Syria and Turkiye. For this reason, Turkish Government must adamantly oppose against division of the Middle East countries in this region. And, Turkiye should refrain from statements that would lead to ethnic division during the new constitution. It has to be protected founding philosophy of the Republic of Turkiye, lingua franca and community of culture and history. Otherwise, Turkiye and the countries of the region will go to a major ethnic conflict environment in the next decade.
