Putin’s order to withdraw some air troops from Syria is not a surprise. Last week, there was an important development that has escaped the attention of the public: Opponents downed a Mig-21 Warcraft in the northern Hama. Those who are closely following the war, had already guessed that this Warcraft was downed by an anti-aircraft missile.
When the negotiations began in Geneva, some opposition resources published any photographs about that they have a large number of North Korea made HT16-PGJ Manpads and Russian-made IGLA-7 (SA-16 Gimlet) anti-craft weapons. These were the same with weapons in the hands of the Syrian Army. Indeed, firstly Russian Army confirmed that the Mig-21 was downed by a Manpad. After two days, this time Syrian Army announced that the Mig-21 was downed by an US-made Stinger. This means is that this anti-craft source was Saudi Arabia. Because, Saudis had announced that they would provide Manpads for opposition groups last month.
If truth be told, there are currently a large number of North Korean and Russian-made anti-aircraft missiles in the hands of oppositions. So the accusations of Assad regime are completely a strategic statement. Another important detail is that this aircraft had been using by Russians and its pilot was a Russian.
The real reason which forced Putin and the Russian Army to withdrawal of some air forces was this. When the oppositions were going to seize the entire of Syria, Russian Air Force had strengthened Assad regime. As a matter of fact, Russian Air Force planes have extremely poor maneuverability and their many of pilots are nonskilled. Therefore, they could not achieve the targets, could not shot the point targets, and caused hundreds of civilian casualties. Such an air force has not a cat in hells chance against these anti-aircraft missiles. On the other hand, the technological failure and clumsiness of Russian aircrafts came to light when one of them was dropped by an F-16 missile and some others were misdirected by High Technology Turkish Air Defense System.
Russian Expert Igor Sutyagin’s first reaction about withdrawing order was thus: “First thing come to my mind was that they run out of money!” The economic aspect of this order is actually other important reason. As a result, Putin immediately saw that Syrian war can finish with a big fiasco and hurriedly agreed to withdraw their air forces.
Turkish and world public opinion will see that Russia which has not a another important weapon apart from nuclear storage holdover from the Cold War, is nothing less than a paper bear in next decade.
Western military experts who tested well enough Russia’s war ability in Syria war, called Putin bluff. However, the commander of US forces in Europa, had showdown as follows: “NATO ready to fight and win if necessary against Russia.”
In this period, Turkiye not only has took a stand against Russia, but also has blocked its allies and US’s mistake about Northern Kurdish Corridor in Syria. Turkey is strengthening its strategic partnership with many countries such as Ukraine and Azerbaijan. The Turkish-Azerbaijani partnership is a significant response both to Russia and Iran.
We have a hunch that there have been Russian intelligence services and their subcontractors behind of bomb vehicles which are caused to hit the mark with important meetings and agreements against Russian interests.
As long as Ukrainian war accelerated, Russia will expand acts of terrorism to Germany and central European countries.
Putin got up timely from the gaming table with his winnings, but the game was not over yet.