Despite Sunni Coalition which was established by the United States, the things are not in order in Syria and Iraq. It was clear that a regional coalition without Turkiye won’t be success. The United States does not agree with unarmed corridor and safe airspace in northern Syria which was offered by Turkiye. Even Chuck Hagel who ran afoul of Obama Management, had to resign at the end of the case.
The United States is out to spread Barzani’s power to northern Syria rather than reconciliation with Turkiye. It wants to use Incirlik Base in operations without compromising its policy. The USA turns eye to barrel bombs of Assad government which is targeting civilians. It only consider ISIL and Radical Islamist Groups as a threat. This situation calls to mind that has been a secret agreement between Russia and the United States in the Middle East.
Indeed, Russia has accelerated its efforts to reconcile the Assad regime with moderate opposition leaders. After a while, it won’t be surprised if Assad government announced a compromise between the moderate opposition. Probably, the Assad will be given green light to enter of some moderate Sunni groups to the government and will call the general election in the next year.
Netanyahu’s government does not want to see an Islamist government in Syria and tries to keep Assad in power. I think that has been the greatest impact of Israel about
Hagel’s resignation and probably that the new Defense Minister will be chosen from the Republican hawks.
This policy of the United States will not bring a lasting solution to the Syrian issue. Moderate Sunni Leaders does not have a leg to stand on community. In contrast, Ahraru Sham and the Nusra Front are creating a political base day by day. If Russia’s plan can succeed, a wide union can occur between Radical Islamist Groups. This situation will lead to a much larger scale conflicts.
Lebanon Hezbollah is in a bad way because of its support to the Assad regime. Around three thousand Hezbollah militants killed in Syria since the start of civil war.
Also Shiite militants who are brought from Afghanistan and Iran and are fighting with Assad uniforms, killed in this conflicts. These losses, given by the Shiite groups, caused great unrest among families. Therefore, Russia and Iran are forcing the Assad regime to compromise in Syria.
ISIL hegemony is expanding in Iraq. Peshmerga and Shia Alliance is not stable base in Baiji and Jalula, the conflicts are continuing in these areas. ISIL which is brewing for Baghdad, recently attacked on Kurdish villages near Kirkuk. Peshmergas which have been supported by the PKK Terrorist Organization, think to seize new cities in south to Kurdistan. So this approach is increasing tensions between Iraqi Shiites and Peshmerga. Kurds wants to declare their sovereignty and to display the flag after each success. The Iraqi Shiites oppose the expansion strategy of Kurds.
The conflicts in AynulArab which is known as Kobani continue at a certain level with supporting of the United States to Kurdish groups. Neither ISIL, nor the PKK & PYD Terrorist Organization did not gain an advantage over each other.
After the appointment of new Secretary of Defense, exactly the US mission will be a little clearer. Strategies of the United States and Russia about Syria can be merged at some point. The conflicts in the future, will be between Islamist Groups and Iraq’s & Syria’s Shiite Governments.
Although the United States believes that its plan is correct, in next Russia, Iran, Syria Shia Alliance will go from strength to strength. Also although the United States supports Barzani, the tensions will increase between Barzani and Islamic or Marxist Kurdish Groups in the future.