The Corona Outbreak, which affected the region and the world since March, will soon have important political and military consequences. After these days, we will talk about two periods as Before Corona and After Corona. The Middle East and the World will witness a significant change in the next decade, After Corona..
From the point of view of the Middle East, the most important effects of this are for Russian and Iranian politics:
Iran is facing an economic downturn due to oil prices that hit the Bottom after Corona. Iran, which has been experiencing difficulties due to the internal confusion with the US pressure and embargo for a long time, had a serious blow in Syria after the assassination of Suleimani. After Corona, Iran is in a great difficulty to support its powers both economically and military in Syria. However, the Iranian administration has an understanding of politics that does not care about human losses in order to hold power. After Suleimani, it attacked for a short time to maintain his political influence, but it had to step back after Corona. For the past few days, the Iranian administration has been looking for ways to be active again in Syria.
Russia is a country that has achieved the greatest profit and development from high oil prices, especially in the last two decades. This wealth suddenly stimulated the arms economy and expanded its political and military sphere of influence. However, the weakening of an important ally in Syria due to Corona makes Russia think. Like Iran, another administration that does not care about human losses is the Syrian regime. Therefore, the Assad administration plans to re-engage in military moves in recent days despite the military losses in the civil war. Naturally, this situation primarily worries Russia. Drifting Syria into a new conflict environment will affect Russia more than Iran and Syria governments, who are willing to fight rather than die. Russia is not ready for a new military and economic spending due to the collapse of the Syrian economy and the weakening of Iran’s military and economic support. Therefore, Russia aims to stop at this point after making the biggest gain in Idlib.
The Syrian Regime is pursuing new moves with Iran, who thinks like itself. The Assad administration is trying to strengthen its solidarity with the PKK Terrorist Organization and Kurdish separatists. The PKK rapprochement with Assad is trying to breathe with oil smuggling along the Euphrates.
It is precisely at this point that the USA is trying to make significant gains from this convergence. Because, despite the effects of Corona, the US administration, as if nothing had happened, has given speed up its politics against Russia and Turkiye. It wants the Syrian regime to get closer to the PKK, to establish the Assad – PKK Coalition in the country and to move to the federation.
In response to these preparations, Russia wants to change the Assad regime trying to get out of control and to build a new solidarity that it will protect its interests. The possible goal of Russia is to achieve a political result that will not lead to a new military and economic spending. This requires moving away from the Syrian and Iranian regimes.
At this point, likely to accelerate a political solution within the framework of common interests of Russia and Turkiye. Russia should change the Assad regime for full cooperation with Turkiye. That is why the agenda of the coming days will be what alternative administration to produce instead of the Assad regime.
Another important issue that Russia is trying to solve in the region is the politics of ethnic elements. From this perspective, there has been a growing disobedience movement in the south of Syria for about six months. It is clear that the US, Israel and the Arab Coalition are behind this rebellion. Russia had previously resolved the problem here through the Settlement Agreements. But when the attacks on the Assad regime have increased in recent months, Syria and Iran, which is facing Israeli attacks in the region, came together. Despite Russia’s efforts to reconcile, all other groups are trying to profit from conflict and chaos. Last week, the leader of the Lebanese Socialist Party, Druz Velid Canbolat, warned his fellow cognates in southern Syria to continue to compromise. He asked from his cognates to oppose against the game of deepening the conflict of Syrian and Israel regimes.
A seeking similar to the situation in South Syria is in the east of the Euphrates. Russia sought a similar compromise with local Arab leaders, especially in the Hasakah region and in the oil fields below. But the US Saudi Partnership drove Arabs away from Russia. However, also Arab tribes are trying to reveal their presence against the PKK. Naturally, one of the main reasons for this situation is economic. Tribes who want to take advantage of the oil trade in the region want to remove it from the PKK’s control. For now, the situation in the region remains in favor of the USA.
The issue of economic interest is one of the most important separation points between Russia and the Assad regime. The civil war process led to excessive enrichment of Esad’s Wife Esma and Esad’s cousin Rami Mahluf. The fact that the war barons strengthen their own interests instead of the country’s economy bothers Russia. For this reason, the US media are constantly trying to fuel the separation between Russia and Assad by keeping this conflict on the agenda. This has also benefited partially, and recently, news and commentaries have been published accusing each other in both the Russian and Assad media. Russia even conducted public research on Assad to conduct political pressure on the one hand and seek new solutions. Naturally the result was the revulsion of the Assad regime from the power. Money is needed for Syria to stand up, and this will not happen with Assad and Iran.
If we summarize the evaluation up to now, all the stones in the region were scattered with Corona. Now these stones are being reconstructed. Turkiye and Russia is on the same front, another front is Assad and Iran, the US, Israel, the Arab Coalition and Arabs in the east of the Euphrates and the also PKK are trying to recover in a separate fronts.
After Corona, the policy of the Middle East will be reshaping rapidly. It would be useful to add one more note to this topic. We think that those who do not care about human losses in order to survive are only dictatorial regimes like Iran and Syria. In fact, human losses don’t matter also for the US administration, and the Corona Outbreak will probably benefit US politics in the region. A clear truth is that in the coming period, whoever has money will have a strong political and military presence. However in the Middle East., the most robust and lasting political solution on the basis of an alliance might between Russia and Turkiye.