The civil war which has been happening in Syria in recent years has begun to spread to Iraq in recent days. Also Chaos has spread beyond all of the southern border of Turkey. New actors have appeared in the region following the U.S. withdraw from Iraq in 2012.
While Russia tries to stay close to the PKK Kurdish groups, Saudi Arabia is supporting the Sunnis. Barzani is still under the control of the Israeli and American advisors. Shiite governments in Syria and Iraq are strongly supported by Iran.
In this environment, Turkey’s policy in in a complete mess and confusion. Does it support Sunnis together with Saudis? Does it stay close to Barzani for making up to the United States? Does it promote the Al-Nusra Front against the PYD (Syrian Kurdish Party) who is backed up by Russia in Syria? Or Does it try to support the Muslim Brotherhood as Islamist Front which collapsed in the Middle East? No matter what it does, every attempt that is made by Turkish government is getting them in trouble. When it supported the Al-Nusra Front, it was at odds with the United States. When it opposed the PYD, it was at variance with the PKK who has been conducting the resolution process with together. When it got close to Barzani, it drifted apart from Maliki. When it tried to have good relations with Iran, It stayed away from the Saudis.
The novice bureaucrats of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and MIT (National Intelligence Service) endangered the security of our southern border and made a number of major mistakes.
In all this chaos, The only thing that Turkiye does not do is directly supports the Turkmen of Iraq and Syria. Turkish government tried to make Iraqi Turkmen connect to the tail of Barzani and also tried to make Syrian Turkmen connect to the back of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Now, the PYD is laying the foundations of the Kurdish Federation which is consist of three states in northern Syria and it is preparing for parliamentary elections. Sunni Al Qaeda Groups is trying to consolidate its sovereignty in the Central of Iraq and Syria.
The United States predicts the dividing of the region as ethnic and sectarian in the period ahead. Iraq and Syria will be divided in to several parts such as Sunni, Shiite, Arab and Kurdish regions. Let’s not wait for the division would be a political division which has defined borders. Firstly, the dominated areas will be determined, then the mutual conflicts and divisions will accelerate, the forces will be tested and every area will call their international supports for reinforcing its political structure.
The Country which will have the most advantage from this division, will be Russia. On the one hand, It will have powerful friends by way of supporting pro-PKK groups in Turkiye, Iraq and Syria; On the other hand, it will continue to work closely with the current Shiite governments in İran, Iraq and Syria.
Sunni Gulf Union which is led by Saudi Arabia will strengthen and support regions and Sunni groups in Iraq and Syria.
The United States will lose both its allies who has been betrayed by the U.S. and will watch purging of Barzani family who has been supported for years by the U.S. by the other Kurdish groups in the next decade.
Israel will fuel the Sunni and Shiite conflicts for reinforcing its presence and security in the region. The Mossad elements will continue to detonate bombs in Sunni and Shiite areas.
And Turkiye! It either will prevent a potential conflicts and internal rebellions with a strongly political rule, or the stones will be fallen into place in present-day conditions by the time Turkiye will be involved in events.
Russian Domination in the Middle East over the next decade!
