The New Balances in the Middle East

Turkiye has entered an election environment and the internal political debates pushed other developments in our region into the background.

We can say that there were very significant developments in the Middle East in the last days. There is nothing drastically changing in Syrian Civil War. On the other hand, let’s dwell on some important issues are based Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

Lebanon is the small important actor of the United States

Lebanon has entered a new era in regional events. While there were conflicts and tension between Hezbollah and Israel at first; Now conflicting parties increased

The Sunnis, who were located in Tripoli, began to make common cause with opposition groups who were across the border, in Syria. The most powerful of them is the Nusra Front. The Opposition Groups in this region on the one hand are fighting against Syrian army, on the other hand are trying to protect the refugee camps and the rights of Sunnis in Lebanon.

Lebanese Hezbollah, which was the part of the government for years, are not pleased at all in this situation. Nasrallah, the Leader of Hezbollah often complains about that the government is on fire ineffective against these Sunni groups. However members of the Lebanese Hezbollah are fighting in common with Syrian Assad Army against Sunnis in particularly Aleppo, Damascus and along the Syrian – Lebanon border. Hezbollah lost a large number of militants in the conflicts. For this reason, Shiite parents who lost their children in this conflicts, criticize Hezbollah’s management and say that they are dragged into a war which is not their own.

Lebanese Hezbollah cooperate with the Iranian Special Forces in Syria. Israeli commanders and experts have great concern about this cooperating because Hezbollah improves its fighting capacity with new weapons, technology and strategy. Many old and new Israeli commanders says that Israel can give huge losses at a new Hezbollah – Israeli conflict. Lebanese Hezbollah has found opportunity about rearming, uncontrollably. Despite all this, neither Hezbollah nor Israel ever don’t have any intention to enter into a new war.

Netanyahu Government is exploiting the other fighting groups in the region for its self-interest because it has seen many military weakness of Israeli Army. There are two major Sunni Islamist Groups, which are fighting against Hezbollah, in the region: The Nusra Front and ISIL (Islamic State). There is no problem between Israel and ISIL but The Nusra Front is a big threat for Israel. The Nusra Front is an Islamic movement based in the Golan. Golan is the most important area for Israel and the Nusra Front is a major threat which would harm Israel’s strategic interests on the Golan in the future.

Israel thinks that it can use the Lebanon Government against Hezbollah but Lebanese parties and groups, which are from whatever religion, sectarian or faith, don’t think any war or conflict. All groups in Lebanon know each other very closely. On the other hand, Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri is showing great effort to maintain the efficiency and power of Lebanon Government. So, in fact, the United States wants to strengthen Lebanese Government as political and military against radical Islamist groups, Hezbollah or the Nusra Front. After the visiting of Hariri to the United States a few days ago, these intentions reinforced. US Administration supports Lebanon Army through its best ally Saudi Arabia.

The situation of ISIL, which strengthened in recent months in the region, is really interesting. Some news leave a question mark over minds: Does Israel secretly help these radical groups. Former NATO Commander General Wesley Clark said that “ISIL is an Israeli project” in his speech on CNN late last month. A few days ago, reportedly that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi died in the hospital in Golan. We don’t know whether these rumors are true or not. Terrorism Experts know very well that leaders of groups, who connected with intelligence services, generally die in the hospitals. We knows that Israeli intelligence service has many special units in Golan.

Islamic State Organization, which was no serious presence around Damascus in the previous months, has shown a great improvement in the region last days. Some radical Islamic groups such as Ceysu’l Jihad and Liwa Suheda, are fighting against the other Islamic opposition groups in Deraa, Damascus suburbs and the east of Kunaitra.

It is our conviction that Islamic State Project is a part of a new Sunni Arab State plan under the control of Western intelligence services.

May be the most important event in the Middle East last days was big changes in Saudi Arabia King Family. A New generation, educated in the US and UK, came to power in Saudi Arabia.

In fact, this clearly means that the United States, which pinned its faith upon Turkiye before, will reform the Middle East with Saudi Arabia in future. They will fight together against Russia and Iran influence in the region. In the near future, the coalition army can make unwarranted military intervention in Syria and Iraq such as Yemen.