With arrived Islamic state of Iraq and Levant which is known as Iraqi Al Qaeda, on the scene, the agenda of the Middle East has accelerated since Last year. Each country has different expectations and interests from this developments. These can be summarized as follows:
Saudi Arabia and Gulf States have supported Sunni Arabs in both Syria and Iraq since time immemorial. After the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, Sunni Islamist Groups were supported very much in terms of both financial and logistic under the control of Bandar Bin Sultan who is Saudi intelligence chief. The U.S., Russia and Israel Undoubtedly had information about these works of Saudis, but, everyone turned a blind eye to the strengthening of Islamist groups for the success of jihad in Syria and Iraq similar to what happened in Afghanistan. Saudis and Gulf States are planning to create a buffer zone between Shiites and their countries. Furthermore they want to establish a new Sunni State which will fight against Iran on their behalf.
Russia was turned a blind eye to escape Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi who is the new leader of ISID (Islamic State of Iraq and Levant) and hundreds of Al-Qaeda militants from the prison of Abu Ghraib. Because she has been wanting to start a new conflict between the cooperation of Al Qaida militants and Sunni Arabs which were supported by SVR (Russia Intelligence Service) in central Iraq. She planned to squelch opposition groups in Syria which are supported by the United States and Western countries, by these armed groups. Also she predicted to reinforce and to legitimate Assad’s Management, than to attract world’s attention to the Middle East again after Ukraine crisis.
In the same way, The United States has been estimated that escapees of Abu Ghraib will reorganize Sunni Arabs in Central Iraq. Both Obama’s Syria policy and relationships between the United States and Maliki government failed, as well as nuclear talks with Iran had made no progress for years. For these reason, Al Qaeda’s threat became a basis for division both Syria and Iraq. Nowadays the United States believe that she can purge radical Islamist groups in the future and establish a new Sunni Arab State in Central Iraq and Central Syria. This state would fight against Iran and Maliki government. While The Obama Administration is aiming to establish federal states in Iraq, some neocons are also wanting to found new small states in the Middle East. The United States is planning to assign northern oil to Kurds, central oil to Sunni Arabs and Basra oil to Shiites. It should be noted that conflicts occur around oil pipelines and production intensified zones.
Today everyone knows that Israel supported Barzani Administration in Iraq for years. Barzani’s Special Forces and Kurdish Intelligence Services were trained by Former Mossad officers in the last decades. In the past few days, Netanyahu announced that is to support establishing a Kurdistan State in the Middle East. Israel wants Sunni Arabs to be fight against Iran and Shiites and become a buffer zone between Maliki and Barzani governments. Also she hopes Sunni Arabs to spread jihad to Iran’s interior and to Zahedan region near Afghanistan’s border. Perhaps the most significant thing for Israel is timing and waiting to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities by taking advantage of the turmoil in the region.
As a result, everyone is trying to realize their own goals under the shadow of ISID (Islamic State of Iraq and Levant). Big states are not providing advanced weapons which have the upper hand on enemy to neither Maliki government nor Arab Sunni Fighters. The main goal is to burn their self out the conflicted parties until a federal solution. After sitting at the table, the above countries above will decide how it should be.
If you ask “Where is Turkiye in this game?” No one knows a clear answer and there is not any positive development on this issue. If a negotiation can be reached about the division of the Middle East, Turkish government will not be at the table, but if political circumstances change after the presidential elections in August, Turkiye’s prestige will return to some extent.
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