Posts Tagged ‘Iraq’

When Obama came to power, everyone was waiting that he will execute a policy more democratic and moderate. In Bush era, the military threat-based policies gave rise to anxiety all over the world and U.S. hostility had increased particularly in the Islamic World. Iraq and Afghanistan policies of the United States were going to collapse. Let’s examine the main problems that Obama have to solve and the possible their consequences:
There are two major problems in the U.S.
Economic Depression: The economic problems in the United States started in the 2000s more and more deepen. While the export of military equipment which is the most important source of income of the United States reducing, military spending in Iraq and Afghanistan is increasing continuously. Gulf is increasing between the rich and the poor and states.
Social Conflict Environment: Feelings of hatred are expanding between blacks and whites. Whites angry blacks who are glad to be President Obama. The heavy pressure, turning to the Muslim after September 11 has lightened, but mistrust between different religions is expanding.
The future of internal problems: We can say that these problems will never solve in the coming years, and the economic crises and social conflicts will rise even further. Outbreak of swine flu would be a very important opportunity for American society to keep away from the economic and social problems. Vaccine production and exports will create an important source of revenue for the American-British companies. This situation raises the question: “Is Swine Flu the result of a psychological plan?”
Important issues outside the U.S.
Israel – Palestine Problem: The most important reason for U.S. hostility in the Islamic world is the Palestinian Israeli conflict. U.S. wants to solve this problem for strengthening its reputation, collapsed in the Muslim world. For this reason, the U.S. partially lets Israel alone and forces it to make peace. Israel wants to produce a solution with excluding Gaza and Hamas.
The future of the Israeli Palestinian Problem: Israeli society, government and the army becomes more and more religious. In this equation, to solve the problem and to provide the peace is very difficult.

If U.S. want to be successful against Russia and China, it should produce a realistic policy rather than self-seeking policies. The biggest mistake the U.S. is the psychological war of attrition which it runs against the Turkish Armed Forces. In the future, Third largest power in the Middle East and Central Asia will be Turkiye. In the long run, the United States and the West should not forget that they could lose their powerful ally.

Middle East, Iraq and the Kurds: At the end of 2010, a significant number of U.S. troops would be pulled from Iraq. 50 thousand soldiers that will stay behind not enough to control all of Iraq. After 2010, the U.S. plans to control especially in central and southern Iraq. In the north, the U.S., UK and Israel trio wants to create a powerful Kurdish federal structure. The greatest obstacle in front of the Federation of Kurdish is PKK terrorist organization. U.S. wants to return of the PKK militants to Turkiye, leaving their weapons and to enter politics. The U.S. did not need to the PKK in the region, because, He saw that Kurds could not succeed through the armed struggle in Iran, Syria and Turkiye. The aim of the United States and its allies is to create powerful Kurdish Federations in these countries and to establish a Kurdish state Federal in the future.
Future of the Middle East and the Kurdish problem: Turkish society and state simply can not digest to engage the PKK militants in domestic politics. Moving of conflict into the country and creating a civil war environment in Turkiye are not allowed. Therefore, the solution ordered by the U.S. will not achieve results. In Iraq, Kurdish structure which has oil revenues and independent from central government will cause civil war. Iran’s influence in Iraq’s future will be growing.
Central Asia and Afghanistan: Due to increasing energy resources, Russia, China and Iran steadily gaining power in Central Asia. United States wants to settle in Afghanistan, namely in the center Russia, China and Iran. It seeks to prevent indirect political and economic relations between Iran, Russia and China. The U.S. is aiming to move Central Asia’s energy resources to the warm seas, through Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Central Asia and Afghanistan’s future: United States can not be a success in Afghanistan in this economic crisis more than. U.S. will be unable to provide peace and tranquility in Afghanistan and Pakistan and sending of 300 thousand soldiers to region is not possible. Any Western country excluding the United States and Britain will never send more troops to Afghanistan. Turkish Armed Forces certainly will not be supported military power that fought in Afghanistan but can increase symbolically the number of peacekeepers. In the next ten years, the U.S. operation in Afghanistan is doomed to certain failure.
If U.S. want to be successful against Russia and China, it should produce a realistic policy rather than self-seeking policies. The biggest mistake the U.S. is the psychological war of attrition which it runs against the Turkish Armed Forces. In the future, Third largest power in the Middle East and Central Asia will be Turkiye. In the long run, the United States and the West should not forget that they could lose their powerful ally.

In recent days, most controversial issue in Turkiye is “Kurdish problem”. Prime Minister R. Tayyip Erdogan, first time had expressed the concept of “Kurdish Problem” in his speech in Diyarbakir on August 12, 2005. After 4 years, an extensive discussion began on this issue. This discussion process will be leading to the creation of a federal Kurdish state in the Middle East.

At the end of World War I, Western countries did not want to establish a Kurdish State in the Middle East. Because Westerners entered into oil agreement with Iran. And in Turkiye, M. Kemal Ataturk would not allow the partition of Anatolia. They saw more suitable to establishment of many states in Arab lands to dominate the oils of the Middle East.

Until World War II, all of the Islamic countries in the Middle East have achieved independence. Dominating of Western countries and U.S. to oils of the Middle East was very important. After the beginning of Cold War, some time the Russians sometimes Westerners began to provocation Kurds in this region. Previously, Iraq had dominated by the Russians. Iraq Baas Administration, which had to agree with Kurds, declared Suleymaniye and the region between two Zap as the Autonomous Kurdish Region in 1970, March 11, by Law.

After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Westerners began to support Iraq against to Iran. 6 months after Khomeini, Saddam Hussein became president in Iraq with the help of the CIA. 6 months later, Saddam launched a war against Iran. In 1988, when Khomeini was sick, both Iran – Iraq War stopped and governance has changed in Iran. Saddam Hussein was thoroughly spoiled with U.S. support. Firstly he attacked the Kurds that collaborating with Iran during the war and conducted a massacre in Halepce town. Then he invaded Kuwait. This situation has created a significant opportunity for Westerners.

At 5 April 1991, following the United Nations’ Act 688; “security zone” were declared both in South and North Iraq. North Iraq Secure Region, which was also known as 36. Parallel, in fact aimed to protect the Kurdish Autonomous Region as designated on 1970.

At 5 April 1991, following the United Nations’ Act 688; “security zone” were declared both in South and North Iraq. North Iraq Secure Region, which was also known as 36. Parallel, in fact aimed to protect the Kurdish Autonomous Region as designated on 1970. Although Musul and Telafer that is Turkish town was on the 36. Parallel, it was left outside of the secure region, while Talabani governed Suleymaniye was included on the secure region, though stayed under the 36. Parallel. Real aim was taking Kurdish Federation under protection.

In 2003, the U.S. and Britain did to cooperate with Kurds during the invasion of Iraq. After the coalition troops settled in Iraq, Kurdish terrorist organizations began to attack in Mahabat region in Iran, in Haseki region in Syria and in Turkiye. Invasion of Iraq was costly to the U.S.  Close to 5 thousand dead and more than 30 thousand U.S. military troops injured. When Obama came to power, the U.S. has decided to withdraw from Iraq completely.

U.S. and the UK’s current objective: to protect Kurds in the region. Firstly the issue must be done in Turkiye for peace and security of Iraqi Kurds. If Turkiye and the PKK understood, PKK will withdraw from northern Iraq and will be strengthened Kurdish Federation in Iraq.

PKK’s current objective: to combine under a constitutional identity. Yet the PKK does not want a federation in Turkiye, because the conditions are not available. But future objective of the Kurds in Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria is to establish their own federal state. Kurdish Problem which discuss in Turkiye is first steps for Federal Kurdish State will be established in the future.